The software licensing landscape will the growth of open source software as it as happened in recent years.
The web software products like CMS will have couple of dominating open source CMS packages like Wordpress, Drupal and Typo3. Even today the White House uses Drupal web software for its home page and Estonia´s biggest energy produer Eesti Energia is using Typo3 for its web page engine. This means that the commercial CMS systems will loose the user base even more rapidly during the years 2010 - 2015 and the use of commercial web software becomes nonsense by 2015. The reason for this is mainly the fact that open source web software is improving and in many cases is better than commercial - largely due to the software developers commmunities who make new developments - plugins etc. Some plugins may have paid versions though.
The same applies to the other web software besides CMS - the web development tools, ftp tools, server software, development frameworks - open source will take over. For example - Dreamweaver which has been one of the leading web development tools until now will loose its market share and will have a minor user base by 2015 among the web development professionals.
On the other hand - the market of offline software remains basicly the same as it is today. For example the commercial closed source designers programs like Photoshop, CorelDraw or AutoCad will be also the major players in 2015 and they will also have the same market share. Thier products have become standard already and they are preferred by the niche profesionals. The price for this software is not so remarkable ( lets say 500 dollars ) if you compare the productivity of this software and the fact that it is a standard in the commercial field. Professionals will still pay the money for the good programs they have used for years and will start to use some new open source competitors if they arrive. For exmple the GIMP is the open source competitor to Photoshop but serious professionals still prefer Photoshop.
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